Trend in 4 weeks: Under temporary threat of cold

The first fortnight of this December is marked by very cold air located in Northern Europe, which may invade France from the middle of next week. But the reliability of this evolution is still limited. Be that as it may, there should be a strong north-south opposition this December, while a slower general warming trend begins in the second half of the month. The end-of-year holiday season is milder, but wet in the north.

Week of December 5 to 11: Significant North-South contrast

This week’s forecast is particularly incredible. France is affected by cold winds located at the level of the English Channel, while lows located on the Iberian Peninsula bring moderate winds with frequent rainy periods. This variation will end with the descent of a general cold front over the weekend and into next weekend. This change may result in snowfall in the plains, which should be noted.

Overall reliability can be estimated at 55%, which is limited, but in regional detail, this reliability is still low to date.

Week of December 12 to 18: Cold, especially in the north

Mid-December may be marked by widespread cold, very brief in the south but long lasting in the north. Then snow will be more noticeable, especially in areas with snow-covered soil, perhaps in the Mid-East. In this case, there is a risk of snowfall in the plains. The plausibility of this evolution is moderate in this cold-season phenomenon, but the epiphenomena of snow in the plains needs to be clarified. Due to the Mediterranean lows, rainfall will be higher in the south and southeast than in the north of the country, which is consistent with the scenario proposed in our seasonal forecasts.

The overall reliability for the cold scenario is close to 55%, but in terms of accuracy and weather chronology, this reliability is very low to date.

Week of December 19 to 25: Towards a milder Christmas

The first week of the Christmas holiday may be quieter, with high pressures returning to the country and swells from the south again. Our country will see weather that is sometimes foggy in the plains and sunny in the mountains. All in all, a weak disturbance may spread northwest with some rain. Air masses will be milder than seasonal norms for this Christmas 2022. Christmas can be celebrated on the south facing balcony. The reliability of this evolution remains moderate and corresponds to what we already mentioned in the previous update.

Despite the distant timeline, the credibility seems moderate towards this scenario altogether.

Week of December 26 to January 1, 2023

The weather conditions are very mild in France, wet and moderately disturbed in the north, calm and anticyclonic in the south.

In total, The average temperature for this month of December is likely to be within seasonal norms, with significant north-south variation. Rainfall is slightly less than that of France, except in the southeast where it is more around the Mediterranean. The first snowfalls in the plains occur in the middle of the month, especially in the south and center. Somewhat calmer weather, but gradually milder, is currently expected towards the end of the year. This evolution seems somewhat credible to us.